“MotoGP is living its best moment ever and even better times are coming.” So says Dorna CEO Carmelo Ezpeleta and there is no reason not to believe him, given the talent coming into the championship next season. “All the actions that we have carried out to make the championship more fun, competitive and sustainable have paid off.

“Next year a new manufacturer is joining MotoGP and the new commercial system will increase 100 percent the support that private teams will receive. We are living the best moment in terms of media impact and popularity of our sport. On the track, we have seen spectacular races and expectations are even higher for next season when many riders will change team and we will have four very promising rookies.”

The arrival said rookies from Moto2 confirms the healthy state of the championship. After the announcement of Alex Rins at Suzuki, Sam Lowes joining Aprilia plus Jonas Folger and Johann Zarco, current Moto2 Champion, are confirmed at Monster Yamaha, although Herve Poncharal may secretly be wishing he had bagged the other Lowes boy instead.

“It’s a breath of fresh air,” states Lin Jarvis, Yamaha Racing Managing Director. “It will be really interesting to see how they do because they are all pretty good. The rookies’ championship will be a championship within the championship.”

Well said. So who is going to be the best rookie next year? Among the four, only 21-year-old Alex Rins will join a factory team. This could make the difference but Jarvis has a different opinion. With five years’ experience in Moto2 and a world title under his belt, Zarco is on the paper the first candidate to repeat the performance of Maverick Vinales, the best rookie of the 2015 season.

“We will have to see who is going to adapt quicker to the increase of speed, the increase of weight, but most of all who will manage better the complexity of a MotoGP machine,” asserts Jarvis. “Who will be the best rookie? Theoretically it should be Zarco, he has already won a championship and he is consistent, mostly. Regarding the bike, I don’t think there is so much difference between a factory Yamaha and a factory Suzuki, so he should do well.”

Wilco Zeelenberg, Yamaha rider performance analyst on Lorenzo’s side of the garage, also supports the choice of Zarco made by the Yamaha satellite team Tech 3: “I know the bike so I can say that Johann will have a good bike. He has the experience to do well. A French rider in a French team is a good combination. In Tech 3 he will find all the support he needs. Regarding the others, Sam (Lowes) has also a very good potential. Alex (Rins) may stand out because he is the only one in the factory team.  Suzuki has a good chassis and it is an easy bike to ride.”

A paddock-wide question cannot exclude the experienced eye of Carlo Pernat, former Aprilia Team Principal in the golden years of Biaggi, Harada, Capirossi and Rossi. Pernat is also Andrea Iannone’s personal manager and before him Loris Capirossi. The Italian does a precise analysis of the potential of the four riders:  

“Johann Zarco is the most experienced riders among the four rookies, but he is 26, so not so young anymore. Mentally he is not so consistent and he has gone through many up and downs. It’s true that he has stood out in the last two seasons but will he be able to keep the momentum also in the premiere class The debut in MotoGP will be an important test for him.

“Sam Lowes, on the contrary, could be a very positive surprise. At his third GP season, all spent in Moto2, he has shown his potential. I like his aggressive riding style, I think it suits the MotoGP. Next year he can do some good races as a rider, then of course the results depend also on the bike but all in all I think that Aprilia has done a good choice signing Sam.

“Jonas Folger?  Honestly I don’t understand this choice. Jonas hasn’t shown so much his potential so I’m a bit perplexed but for sure Hervé Poncharal (the Yamaha Tech 3 Team Principal), who has a lot of experience, has seen something that I cannot see.  

“The fourth rookie will be Alex Rins. He is an excellent choice. He is 21 year old and he stood out already in Moto3 finishing second in 2013 and third the following year. He has adapted quickly also to the Moto2 bikes, finishing second in 2015, his rookie year and he is currently second in the championship. This skill to adapt quickly to a new class this is a very positive point in his favour. Suzuki did very well to sign him. The bike is progressing well and I think Alex has chances to be the best rookie next year.”

Alberto Albi Tebaldi, Valentino Rossi’s close friend and the President of the VR46, also in charge of the Academy, has a special eye to scout new talents: “Who will be the best rookie next year? Alex Rins,” he replies without hesitating. “Among Zarco, Folger and Lowes, Rins is the most technical rider. The jump to the premiere class is tough and you need the technique. The heart alone is not enough!”

Piero Taramasso, Michelin Responsible for the MotoGP Project confirms: “The switch from Moto2 to MotoGP is not easy. There are some exceptions like Marc Marquez, for example, who adapted immediately to MotoGP and won the title in his rookie year. I think Zarco has more experience, he is a veteran with his five seasons in Moto2. I hope he can make advantage of his long experience and adapt quickly to the premier class.”  

Simone Battistella, the personal manager for Andrea Dovizioso and Alvaro Bautista, shares the same idea: “I see Zarco as the most competitive because this year he is demonstrating that last year result didn’t come by chance. He worked hard to gain the world title and this year he is repeating a strong performance. He is also very good at managing the pressure during the race.”

HRC Team Principal Livio Suppo has never hidden his predilection for Alex Rins. “It’s really difficult to say who is going to adapt first to the new class because in Moto2 they all look very fast, but if I have to chose one, I would say Rins. Next year it will be really interesting to see how he does. It is also the first time that a MotoGP team lines up two rookies as Folger and Zarco in Tech 3. Regarding Lowes, I think he has potential, but then it will depend also how and in that what extent the Aprilia will progress.”  

Francesco Guidotti, Octo Pramac Team Manager, agrees: “If we look at the records, Rins is the rider who has adapted more quickly to the new class, while Zarco won the Moto2 title at his fourth attempt. Alex is also younger and for this reason more open to take more risks. Then of course the result will depend from the whole package. Rins will debut in a factory team, Folger and Zarco will rider two Yamahas while Lowes will rider an Aprilia, a bike that at the moment is not at the same level as Suzuki and Yamaha. So I also say Rins as possible candidate for the best 2017 rookie.”

Sam Lowes is the only rider among the four future rookies to have tested a MotoGP machine more than once. He made his debut on the Italian bike at Misano World Circuit last June 30 in occasion of a Ducati test day together with Aprilia test rider Mike Di Meglio and Ducati super test rider Casey Stoner. Zarco got one day on the Suzuki before he signed his Yamaha deal.

“We could not have had a better start,” said Aprilia Racing Director Romano Albesiano. “Sam got on a bike that he had never seen before, having to deal with a series of new features that range from the available power to the carbon brakes. He was at ease straight away and he also proved to be very analytical and precise in the indications he gave the team, as well as with his work method.

“Naturally, we were not looking at times, but even from this point of view, we were quite pleased with these two days. So of course I am very happy with the choice we have done and this year has also being important as a preparation for next year.”